Anthropic goes public at a valuation of up to US$1.4 trillion
On outstanding shares, the range of US$70 to US$78 per share values the company at between about US$917.5 billion and US$1.019 trillion.
Anthropic filed today the second amendment to its S-1 with the SEC and launched its roadshow. It is offering 825 million Class A shares at a price of between US$70 and US$78, and will list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT. The prospectus has not yet set dates. According to CNBC, citing people familiar with the offering, the price would be set on the evening of Wednesday, November 18, and the shares would begin trading on Thursday, the 19th.
A raise of nearly US$100 billion
At the top of the range, the IPO raises about US$64.35 billion. Of the 825 million shares, 801.4 million are new and are issued by Anthropic. The other 23.6 million are being sold by the seven co-founders, 3.38 million each, according to the selling stockholders table in the S-1/A (p. 299).
In parallel, Anthropic will place US$26 billion in non-voting Class N shares at the same IPO price. Google and Nvidia are putting up about US$10 billion each, AMD US$2.5 billion, Broadcom, Micron and Microsoft US$1 billion each, and TSMC US$500 million (S-1/A, cover and p. 19; summarized by Wall St Engine). I see it as a good sign that its own chip and cloud partners are backing the company. The overallotment, of up to 123.75 million shares, would add another US$9.7 billion. The total is around US$100 billion at the top of the range, as the Financial Times calculates.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead a syndicate of 22 banks. Up to 20% of the shares could be allocated to retail investors, through Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, Trade-PMR, SoFi and E*TRADE (S-1/A, p. 337-338). According to CNBC and Bloomberg, the latter cited by IPO Newsroom, the order book was already covered on the day of the launch.
Undiluted or fully diluted
The undiluted valuation multiplies the price by the shares that will be outstanding after the offering, including those from the IPO and the private placement. The fully diluted valuation also adds the shares that could still be issued under commitments already made, mainly to employees: options, unvested restricted stock and reserves under the stock plans.
That is why the headlines do not match. Reuters and NBC speak of up to US$1.02 trillion, and Bloomberg, according to ZeroHedge, of nearly a trillion, because they count outstanding shares. The FT speaks of US$1.26 to US$1.41 trillion and CNBC of up to US$1.405 trillion, because they use the diluted base.
On outstanding shares, which already include those from the IPO and the private placement, the valuation runs from about US$917.5 billion at US$70 to about US$1.019 trillion at US$78. Because the placement is a fixed amount, the number of shares changes with the price: about 13.107 billion at US$70 and 13.069 billion at US$78 (S-1/A, p. 19-20). On a fully diluted basis the count reaches about 18.010 billion shares, and the valuation runs from US$1.26 to US$1.405 trillion.
According to the S-1/A (p. 22-23), the diluted base adds 1.774 billion options with an average exercise price of US$2.91, about 1.074 billion RSUs, 29 million shares issued after September 30 and about 2.050 billion reserved under the plans. These last have not yet been granted and are worth about US$160 billion at US$78; without them, the figure falls to about US$1.24 trillion. Left out are 1.564 billion Class N shares from the conversion of Amazon’s remaining notes, about US$122 billion at US$78 (p. 23 and 321), as well as the overallotment and the donation reserve. Thus, the same share at US$78 can be read as a company worth US$1.0 trillion or more than US$1.5 trillion.
In its May announcement Anthropic reported a post-money valuation of US$965 billion for Series H, without specifying the share base. The arithmetic points to a diluted base. Series H-1 was sold at US$589.0095 per preferred share (S-1/A, p. 291), and each preferred share converts into 10 common shares, that is, US$58.90 per share. US$965 billion divided by US$58.90 is about 16.400 billion shares, against the 11.930 billion that exist before the IPO, which would have given about US$703 billion.
If that reading is correct, the comparable figure is the US$1.26 to US$1.405 trillion, and the IPO range sits between 31% and 45% above Series H. On outstanding shares the difference would be between -5% and +6%, which is where the impression comes from that the valuation barely moved.
The share price as a clean measure
For anyone who invested before the IPO I prefer to look at the share price against the entry price, a number that does not depend on any definition of dilution. The prices per round come from Anthropic’s filing with the SEC and are adjusted for the 10-for-1 split of September 17, 2026.
Round | Date | Price per share | Multiple at US$70 | Multiple at US$78 |
Series E | Jan–Mar 2025 | US$5.61 | 12.5x | 13.9x |
Series F | Aug–Sep 2025 | US$14.10 | 4.96x | 5.53x |
Series G | Jan–Feb 2026 | US$25.91 | 2.70x | 3.01x |
Series H | May–Jun 2026 | US$58.90 | 1.19x | 1.32x |
Between Series E and Series H the share price multiplied by 10.5, and the IPO adds between 19% and 32%. These are gross multiples per share, before the fees and carry of each investment vehicle, and the dilution of the IPO does not change them because each preferred share converts into 10 common shares. According to the S-1, they will be Class A, with voting rights, or Class N, non-voting, depending on the series, and Class N converts to Class A when sold to an unaffiliated third party.
When current shareholders can sell
The share release is staggered and the days are counted from the date of the final prospectus (S-1/A, p. 318-320 and 329-335). The dates in the table are estimates, assuming a prospectus dated November 18; they coincide with the analyses of VT Markets, Beating the Tide and Raison:
Estimated date | Day | 180-day group | More than 0.5% of the capital (365-day group) |
Dec. 15, 2026 | 27 | 6% | 1.8% |
Jan. 5, 2027 | 48 | 6% | 1.8% |
Jan. 19, 2027 | 62 | 7% | 2.1% |
Feb. 2, 2027 | 76 | 7% | 2.1% |
May 17, 2027, or earlier with 1Q 2027 results | 180 | Full release | Additional tranche |
Nov. 18, 2027, or earlier with 3Q 2027 results | 365 | Full release |
Each deadline ends on whichever comes first between that date and certain quarterly results. Officers, employees and consultants, not counting the co-founders, may sell 10% from the first day of trading and another 35% after the 2026 results. The co-founders may sell up to 29% when day 180 or the 1Q 2027 results arrive, whichever comes first, and the rest at the end of the 365-day period.
In addition, under Rule 144, anyone who is not an affiliate and bought in 2026 will not be able to sell in the market before mid-February 2027, when Anthropic will have been a reporting company for 90 days (S-1/A, p. 320-322).
The business that supports the valuation
Anthropic’s quarterly revenue went from US$2.040 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 to US$16.956 billion in the third quarter of 2026, and in nine months totaled US$33.242 billion, about 13 times the same period in 2025 (S-1/A, p. 26 and 164). The annualized revenue run rate reached US$81 billion as of October 31, US$10 billion more than a month earlier.
The adjusted operating margin was 19% in the second quarter and 15% in the third, against -93% a year earlier (S-1/A, p. 167, non-GAAP measure). William Blair, cited by Barron's, estimates revenue of US$135 billion in 2027, which would place the offering at between 10 and 11 times projected sales.
Goldman Sachs, the lead coordinator of the offering, shared with a prospective investor revenue projections of about US$52 billion in 2026, US$136 billion in 2027, US$442 billion in 2029 and more than US$600 billion in 2030, about 130 times the US$4.6 billion of 2025, according to Wall St Engine and the FT cited by ZeroHedge. The same bank anticipates free cash consumption of about US$65.7 billion in 2027 and does not see positive free cash flow until 2030, at about US$33.6 billion. I read those figures as the scale of the investment this growth requires, in line with some US$900.9 billion in purchase and lease commitments, almost all in compute, that the S-1/A details (p. 7 and 38). Polymarket put the 2030 figure at US$685 billion: the figures in circulation differ, and all of them are projections from the bank underwriting the offering.
I am watching the competition closely: Barron's mentions Meta, Alphabet and open-weight models, especially Chinese ones, and the S-1/A estimates that price cuts subtracted about US$600 million from third-quarter growth (p. 165).
The week of November 16
If the calendar reported by CNBC holds, the final price will be known on the evening of Wednesday the 18th, and that day I will update these figures.
Sources: Anthropic S-1 and S-1/A No. 2 (SEC); Anthropic announcements on the roadshow and Series H; Financial Times; CNBC; Reuters and NBC News; Barron's; ZeroHedge (article and posts on X); Polymarket (post on X); Wall St Engine (two posts on X); IPO Newsroom (post on X); VT Markets; Beating the Tide; Raison; SEC, Rule 144.
Informational content; not an investment recommendation.
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